Weekly Steel Morning Post.

The billet has risen by more than 15 dollars last week. Steel prices went like this this week. . .

Last week, the production restriction turmoil heated up, and the steel market prices fluctuated and fluctuated widely. First of all, the spot market at the beginning of the week mostly made up the rise, but then the spot transaction in the middle of the week was not good, the market was cautious, and the quotations of some varieties fell. As the weekend approached, under the influence of restricted production factors, Tangshan steel billet rose sharply. At the same time, the market performance was strong, and the spot market mentality was boosted, and the quotations strengthened accordingly.

Inventory of various varieties of markets across the country:

Construction steel: Last week, the national construction steel prices showed obvious volatility and strong momentum. The main reason is that the black steel futures rebounded sharply at the end of last week, and the billet again showed a sharp rise on the weekend. After the opening, merchant prices rose sharply, but the market terminal generally accepted the high prices, and the high prices dropped significantly. However, as the futures market rebounded strongly again, market middlemen and terminal purchase sentiment were positive. After the merchants started to concentrate and increase the volume, the price rose again, but the high price hit the wall again. The high price fell now, and the overall trend of the week was fluctuating. the Lord.

From the perspective of supply, production continued to increase this week, and the rate of increase has narrowed. From a technological point of view, the increase is still concentrated in electric furnaces and billet adjustment enterprises, and the proportion of normal production enterprises of blast furnace enterprises is basically the same as last week; from the perspective of provinces, Shandong’s production reduction is more prominent, mainly related to environmental protection and production restrictions; while Guangdong, The production of long and short process enterprises in Guangxi, Zhejiang, Hubei and other provinces has gradually recovered, and output has increased significantly.

In terms of demand: In terms of transactions, with the passage of time, terminal demand continued to recover this week, and transactions performed better than in the previous period. However, there is still a certain gap between the market and the peak demand season. In terms of transaction data, as of the 12th, the average weekly transaction volume of 237 distributors across the country was 181,300 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons from last week’s average weekly transaction volume, an increase of 12.68%.

From a mentality point of view: After the holiday, the rapid price increase has led to a high cost of post-settlement resources for merchants. However, due to the overall relatively good outlook on the market outlook, the willingness to maintain prices at low prices exists. However, with the rapid increase in prices, the transaction is falling again, and the high price support is general. As a result, the current local businesses’ mentality is more cautious and fear of heights coexist. On the whole, it is expected that the price of construction steel will continue to fluctuate at a high level next week.

Steel pipes: The domestic seamless pipe market prices rose sharply this week. Last week, the domestic welded pipe market prices went up as a whole, and social inventories dropped. According to Mysteel inventory data, as of March 12, the average price of 4 inch * 3.75mm welded pipes in 27 major cities across the country was 5,225 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 61 yuan/ton from the average price of 5164 yuan/ton last Friday. In terms of inventory: The national inventory of welded pipes on March 12 was 924,600 tons, a decrease of 18,900 tons from 943,500 tons last Friday.
This week, the black futures rebounded after falling, which is good for the spot market.
In terms of raw materials, the price of billet and strip steel was firm this week, supporting the price of steel pipe. On the demand side, as the temperature rises, downstream construction sites have started one after another, and downstream demand is improving. On the supply side, welded pipe inventory has been consumed. The pipe factory started construction earlier than last year and the supply is sufficient. On the macro level, environmental protection and production restriction policies were implemented in various regions this week, and shipments of some manufacturers and traders were affected.
Last week, the price of welded pipes fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of falling first and then rising. The market bids were chaotic. The downstream procurement was cautious and the transaction slowed down.
In summary, it is expected that the nationwide welded pipe prices will fluctuate and operate stably this week.

Macro and industrial aspects:

Macro news: The National Two Sessions in 2021 will be successfully concluded in Beijing; the Sino-US high-level strategic dialogue will be held from March 18th to 19th; the “scissor gap” between CPI and PPI will continue to expand in February; financial data in February exceeds expectations; China’s first two months Foreign trade is off to a good start; the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has fallen.

Data tracking: On the fund side, the currency completely hedged the maturity volume last week. In terms of industry data, the blast furnace operating rate of the 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel fell to 80%, and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants nationwide was 69.44%; the price of iron ore dropped significantly that week, the price of rebar rose slightly, and the prices of cement and concrete remained unchanged. Stable; the average daily retail sales of passenger cars for the week was 35,000, and the Baltic BDI index rose by 7.16%.

Financial market: Last week, major commodity futures were mixed; China’s three major stock indexes all fell, while the three major U.S. stock indexes rose across the board; in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 91.61, down 0.38%.

Prediction this week:

At present, the overall market procurement rhythm is chaotic, and most of the stages are mostly affected by the level of raw materials and futures. For the current high spot price level, the overall market acceptance is low. On the other hand, the current steel companies are still optimistic about the adjustment of production prices in the short term, and the follow-up replenishment cost of spot goods has stabilized at a high level. Therefore, even if there is an expectation of realizing profits at this stage, the actual market operation is cautious, which will cause Spot ups and downs are in a dilemma.

On the whole, the contradiction between cost and demand at this stage is still present, although it is not sharp, but in the case of the current price is still at a high level, in the short term, the price may be adjusted by high fluctuations.


Post time: Mar-15-2021